Recessionary signal   Warning signal   Expansionary signal   N/A*  

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 0.3 on 1-2025 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1, 0.3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.0 on 1-2025 -0.4, 0.2, -0.2, -0.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.5, -0.0, 0.2, -0.0

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 5.1 percent change yoy on 2-2025 11.1, 13.9, 20.0, 13.5, 7.9, 5.1, 13.5, 7.9, 8.1, 5.1
U-6 Unemployment Rate 9.6 percent change yoy on 2-2025 10.4, 7.2, 16.4, 9.9, 10.0, 6.9, 10.0, 4.2, 4.2, 9.6
Total Nonfarm Employment 151.0 change period over period on 2-2025 193.0, 87.0, 88.0, 71.0, 240.0, 44.0, 261.0, 323.0, 125.0, 151.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 7.6 percent change yoy on 3/01/2025 8.5, 4.7, 6.0, 5.3, 1.6, 1.8, -0.6, 1.5, 7.0, 7.6
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 1.5 percent change yoy on 1-2025 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.5, 2.2, 2.0, 2.1, 1.8, 1.7, 1.5
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.2 percent change yoy on 2-2025 0.2, 0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 4.1 percent change yoy on 2-2025 4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 2.0 percent change yoy on 1-2025 -0.8, -0.0, 0.9, -0.5, -0.1, -0.7, -0.4, -0.9, 0.3, 2.0
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries -2.7 percent change yoy on 1-2025 6.6, 4.1, 3.1, -2.4, -1.6, 1.4, 8.9, 1.3, -0.4, -2.7
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods 9.2 percent change yoy on 1-2025 -4.5, -8.6, -34.9, 1.6, -0.8, -12.2, 1.7, -21.1, -16.0, 9.2

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.0 percent change yoy on 1-2025 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.1, 3.0
Real Retail and Food Services Sales 1.2 percent change yoy on 1-2025 -0.6, -0.6, -1.0, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4, 0.4, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 4.0 percent change yoy on 1-2025 2.3, 2.2, 1.7, 2.8, 1.7, 1.8, 2.8, 4.1, 4.5, 4.0
Total Vehicle Sales 1.7 percent change yoy on 2-2025 2.3, -6.1, 0.3, -1.7, 0.5, 4.9, 7.6, 5.7, 2.9, 1.7
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 0.0 percent change yoy on 1-2025 2.5, 2.9, 0.6, 3.4, -0.1, -4.8, -1.6, 1.7, 5.5, 0.0

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -2.3 percent change yoy on 1-2025 -2.0, -8.7, -2.6, -6.3, -6.8, -5.9, -7.5, -1.0, -3.1, -2.3

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.2 on 3/10/2025 4.3, 4.2, 4.3, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.3, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) -0.1 on 3/11/2025 -0.1, -0.0, -0.1, -0.2, -0.1, -0.1, -0.0, -0.0, -0.1, -0.1
Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.3 on 3/11/2025 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3
M2 Money Stock 3.9 percent change yoy on 1-2025 1.0, 1.0, 1.4, 1.5, 2.1, 2.7, 3.1, 3.7, 3.8, 3.9
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -10.4 percent change yoy on 3/05/2025 -10.8, -10.8, -10.9, -11.0, -10.6, -10.8, -10.7, -10.5, -10.6, -10.4
Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.8 on 2-2025 -0.7, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4, -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.6 on 2/28/2025 -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -0.5 on 2/28/2025 -0.6, -0.6, -0.8, -0.8, -1.0, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8, -0.5

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 3.0 percent change yoy on 1-2025 3.4, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.3 percent change yoy on 1-2025 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.6 percent change yoy on 1-2025 2.9, 2.7, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.6
Median Consumer Price Index 3.9 on 1-2025 4.3, 2.8, 2.5, 2.6, 3.7, 4.1, 3.7, 3.2, 3.2, 3.9
5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.1 on 3/11/2025 2.2, 2.2, 2.2, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1


Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.
Last Update on: 03/12/2025