Indicators | Last Recession

Recessionary signal Warning signal Expansionary signal N/A*

Leading Indicators

Leading Index for the United States 99.9 on 1-2024 99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 1.3 on 11-2024 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.3, 0.8, 1.1, 1.3

Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.2 on 12-2024 -0.2, -0.4, 0.2, -0.1, -0.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.5, -0.0, 0.2

Employment Indicators

Civilian Unemployment Rate 7.9 percent change yoy on 12-2024 11.4, 14.7, 11.1, 13.9, 20.0, 13.5, 7.9, 5.1, 13.5, 7.9

U-6 Unemployment Rate 4.2 percent change yoy on 12-2024 9.0, 12.1, 10.4, 7.2, 16.4, 9.9, 10.0, 6.9, 10.0, 4.2

Total Nonfarm Employment 256.0 change period over period on 12-2024 310.0, 108.0, 216.0, 118.0, 144.0, 78.0, 255.0, 43.0, 212.0, 256.0

4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims 1.4 percent change yoy on 1/25/2025 0.0, 0.5, 5.9, 7.3, 7.8, 8.5, 4.7, 6.0, 5.3, 1.4

Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts) 2.0 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.3, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.6, 2.5, 2.4, 2.4, 2.1, 2.0

Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees 0.5 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2, -0.2, 0.0, -0.2, -0.2, 0.5, 0.5

Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory) 3.8 percent change yoy on 12-2024 4.2, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.9, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.9, 3.8

Production Indicators

Industrial Production Index 0.5 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.3, -0.8, -0.0, 0.9, -0.5, -0.1, -0.7, -0.5, -0.6, 0.5

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries 1.8 percent change yoy on 11-2024 -0.2, 3.3, 6.6, 4.1, 3.1, -2.4, -1.6, 1.4, 8.9, 1.8

Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods -18.1 percent change yoy on 12-2024 1.0, -4.5, -8.6, -34.9, 1.6, -0.8, -12.2, 1.7, -21.0, -18.1

Consumer Indicators

Real Person Consumption Expenditures 3.1 percent change yoy on 12-2024 2.7, 2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.1

Real Retail and Food Services Sales 1.0 percent change yoy on 12-2024 0.2, -0.6, -0.7, -1.0, 0.0, -0.6, -0.4, 0.4, 1.4, 1.0

Retail Sales: Total (ex food services) 4.2 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.3, 2.3, 2.2, 1.7, 2.8, 1.7, 1.8, 2.8, 4.3, 4.2

Total Vehicle Sales 5.1 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.0, 0.5, 2.3, -6.1, 0.2, -1.6, 0.3, 5.0, 7.5, 5.1

Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores 5.8 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -2.3, 2.5, 2.9, 0.6, 3.4, -0.1, -4.8, -1.6, 2.1, 5.8

Residential Construction Indicators

New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits -3.1 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.5, -2.0, -8.7, -2.6, -6.3, -6.8, -5.9, -7.5, -1.0, -3.1

Nonperforming Total Loans (past due 90+ days plus nonaccrual) to Total Loans 1.1 on 7/01/2020 1.1

Credit and Financial Indicators

10-Year US Treasury 4.5 on 1/30/2025 4.6, 4.6, 4.6, 4.6, 4.6, 4.6, 4.5, 4.6, 4.6, 4.5

Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) 0.3 on 1/31/2025 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3

Yield Curve (10yr to 2yr) 0.4 on 1/31/2025 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4

M2 Money Stock 3.9 percent change yoy on 12-2024 -0.0, 0.8, 0.7, 1.1, 1.3, 2.0, 2.6, 3.1, 3.7, 3.9

All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets -10.6 percent change yoy on 1/29/2025 -11.4, -10.9, -10.9, -10.8, -10.7, -10.8, -10.8, -10.9, -11.0, -10.6

Kansas City Financial Stress Index -0.8 on 12-2024 -0.5, -0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4, -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.8

Chicago National Financial Conditions Index -0.7 on 1/24/2025 -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.7

St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c) -1.0 on 1/24/2025 -0.6, -0.6, -0.5, -0.6, -0.5, -0.6, -0.6, -0.8, -0.8, -1.0

Inflation Indicators

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items) 2.9 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.5, 3.4, 3.3, 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) 3.2 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.8, 3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.2

PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy) 2.8 percent change yoy on 12-2024 3.0, 2.9, 2.7, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.8

Median Consumer Price Index 3.6 on 12-2024 4.3, 4.3, 3.0, 2.4, 3.8, 3.2, 4.1, 3.6, 2.8, 3.6

5yr5yr Inflation Expectations 2.3 on 1/31/2025 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3

Note: Indicators are updated daily at 6:00 am Eastern time.
*Indicators rated as N/A may not themselves suggest changes in the business cycle, but should be monitored nonetheless.