Recessionary signal
Warning signal
Expansionary signal
N/A*
Leading Indicators
Leading Index for the United States
99.9
on 1-2024
99.0, 99.1, 99.2, 99.3, 99.4, 99.5, 99.5, 99.6, 99.7, 99.9
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
0.3
on 1-2025
0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1, 0.3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-0.0
on 1-2025
-0.4, 0.2, -0.2, -0.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.5, -0.0, 0.2, -0.0
Employment Indicators
Civilian Unemployment Rate
5.1 percent change yoy
on 2-2025
11.1, 13.9, 20.0, 13.5, 7.9, 5.1, 13.5, 7.9, 8.1, 5.1
U-6 Unemployment Rate
9.6 percent change yoy
on 2-2025
10.4, 7.2, 16.4, 9.9, 10.0, 6.9, 10.0, 4.2, 4.2, 9.6
Total Nonfarm Employment
151.0 change period over period
on 2-2025
193.0, 87.0, 88.0, 71.0, 240.0, 44.0, 261.0, 323.0, 125.0, 151.0
4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
7.6 percent change yoy
on 3/01/2025
8.5, 4.7, 6.0, 5.3, 1.6, 1.8, -0.6, 1.5, 7.0, 7.6
Real Personal Income (ex. current transfer receipts)
1.5 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
2.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.5, 2.2, 2.0, 2.1, 1.8, 1.7, 1.5
Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees
0.2 percent change yoy
on 2-2025
0.2, 0.5, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.2, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.2
Average Hourly Earnings (Production and Nonsupervisory)
4.1 percent change yoy
on 2-2025
4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 4.1, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1
Production Indicators
Industrial Production Index
2.0 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
-0.8, -0.0, 0.9, -0.5, -0.1, -0.7, -0.4, -0.9, 0.3, 2.0
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Consumer Goods: Consumer Durable Goods Industries
-2.7 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
6.6, 4.1, 3.1, -2.4, -1.6, 1.4, 8.9, 1.3, -0.4, -2.7
Value of Manufacturer's New Orders for Nondefense Capital Goods
9.2 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
-4.5, -8.6, -34.9, 1.6, -0.8, -12.2, 1.7, -21.1, -16.0, 9.2
Consumer Indicators
Real Person Consumption Expenditures
3.0 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
2.4, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, 2.9, 3.2, 3.2, 3.2, 3.1, 3.0
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
1.2 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
-0.6, -0.6, -1.0, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4, 0.4, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2
Retail Sales: Total (ex food services)
4.0 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
2.3, 2.2, 1.7, 2.8, 1.7, 1.8, 2.8, 4.1, 4.5, 4.0
Total Vehicle Sales
1.7 percent change yoy
on 2-2025
2.3, -6.1, 0.3, -1.7, 0.5, 4.9, 7.6, 5.7, 2.9, 1.7
Retail Trade: Electronics and Appliance Stores
0.0 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
2.5, 2.9, 0.6, 3.4, -0.1, -4.8, -1.6, 1.7, 5.5, 0.0
Residential Construction Indicators
New Private Housing Unit Authorized by Building Permits
-2.3 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
-2.0, -8.7, -2.6, -6.3, -6.8, -5.9, -7.5, -1.0, -3.1, -2.3
Credit and Financial Indicators
Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo)
-0.1
on 3/10/2025
0.0, -0.1, -0.0, -0.1, -0.2, -0.1, -0.1, -0.0, -0.0, -0.1
All Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets
-10.4 percent change yoy
on 3/05/2025
-10.8, -10.8, -10.9, -11.0, -10.6, -10.8, -10.7, -10.5, -10.6, -10.4
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
-0.8
on 1-2025
-0.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3, -0.4, -0.5, -0.4, -0.4, -0.8, -0.8
Chicago National Financial Conditions Index
-0.6
on 2/28/2025
-0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6, -0.6
St. Louis Financial Stress Index(c)
-0.5
on 2/28/2025
-0.6, -0.6, -0.8, -0.8, -1.0, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8, -0.5
Inflation Indicators
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items)
3.0 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
3.4, 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.9, 3.0
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy)
3.3 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
3.6, 3.4, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.3, 3.2, 3.3
PCE Price Index (ex Food and Energy)
2.6 percent change yoy
on 1-2025
2.9, 2.7, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 2.6