This is the daily update for today, October 29, 2024.
One word that discribes the US economy: Risk
Based on the data provided and the analysis, there are several key economic indicators that suggest a potential risk of recession. The Leading Index for the United States, M2 Money Stock, and the Civilian Unemployment Rate are showing concerning signs, with values indicating a higher risk of recession. The Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, which provides a comprehensive outlook on the potential likelihood of a recession, indicates that the risk has increased over recent months. Additionally, parameters such as the Average Hourly Earnings and Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (All items less food & energy) are also suggesting potential economic instability.
Furthermore, recent numbers from the Yield Curve (10yr to 3mo) and the Total Vehicle Sales show a downward trend, which is commonly associated with an impending recession. However, it's important to acknowledge that the Total Nonfarm Employment and Real Personal Income (excluding current transfer receipts) indicators are showing some resilience. It is essential to monitor these economic indicators closely and consider implementing appropriate measures to mitigate potential recession risks. Overall, while some indicators are showing positive signs, there is a clear indication of potential economic turbulence in the near future, and caution is advised.
Text written with ChatGPT from OpenAI.